Housing prices don’t matter. Payments do.

Jun 5

Most housing narratives focus on appreciation.

That’s not what determines demand. Payments do.

From recent data:

• Mortgage rates: ~3% → ~6–7%

• Monthly payments: +45–60% for the same home

That’s the real constraint.

Buyers don’t buy prices. They buy monthly affordability.

Defined by NAR:

Income relative to mortgage payment. So when rates rise:

Demand falls even if prices haven’t adjusted yet.

Conclusion:

Housing is not a passive appreciating asset. It is a leveraged exposure to:

→ Interest rates

→ Credit conditions

Question:

If affordability collapses, what do you think happens next prices or demand?

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